Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 2.781145 2.977282 3.187947 3.432377 3.709899 4.017289 4.386457
2025-02-23 2.488684 2.750221 3.047072 3.413472 3.860140 4.396147 5.103001
2025-03-02 2.296209 2.590897 2.937940 3.385125 3.959270 4.692006 5.735350
2025-03-09 2.153581 2.468379 2.849700 3.357980 4.038713 4.954160 6.350616
2025-03-16 2.048808 2.379314 2.789325 3.352131 4.134846 5.239729 7.042137
2025-03-23 1.981591 2.329723 2.771462 3.395288 4.296003 5.632590 7.977616
2025-03-30 1.888390 2.239359 2.691860 3.344088 4.312189 5.804432 8.579157
2025-04-06 1.805565 2.156948 2.616237 3.290157 4.315312 5.951234 9.165739
2025-04-13 1.718321 2.063800 2.519951 3.198205 4.249270 5.972063 9.510248
2025-04-20 1.682741 2.037507 2.513128 3.234868 4.386150 6.355755 10.710321
2025-04-27 1.659623 2.026352 2.525863 3.300275 4.574645 6.861084 12.374498
2025-05-04 1.636447 2.013523 2.534760 3.359393 4.757854 7.389130 14.348878
2025-05-11 1.587883 1.963940 2.488984 3.331260 4.789967 7.630023 15.690443
2025-05-18 1.544789 1.920276 2.449646 3.310541 4.833085 7.902879 17.302716
2025-05-25 1.503128 1.876864 2.408359 3.283417 4.860966 8.147491 18.995365
2025-06-01 1.464692 1.836522 2.369624 3.257608 4.888130 8.395754 20.908849
2025-06-08 1.433916 1.806009 2.344187 3.252047 4.953166 8.747668 23.607714
2025-06-15 1.416464 1.794086 2.346330 3.293059 5.114132 9.377280 28.485906
2025-06-22 1.378763 1.751086 2.298506 3.244401 5.087697 9.510339 30.859290
2025-06-29 1.342489 1.709108 2.250703 3.193122 5.051198 9.610426 33.243522
2025-07-06 1.299681 1.656313 2.184227 3.105625 4.931475 9.455946 33.682412
2025-07-13 1.286596 1.647370 2.186430 3.140522 5.076322 10.103192 41.871631
2025-07-20 1.280018 1.647825 2.203353 3.202744 5.288125 11.025056 56.933624